Montreal is 3-3-1 after seven games, but the underlying numbers say the Canadiens are playing better than their record. So why aren’t the wins coming?

The Canadiens have not started the season the way many fans expected. After seven games, the blame is landing in all kinds of places: the goaltenders, the defensemen, a few specific players. Some of those complaints are fair. There are real problems, and I will go through each of them below. But the underlying numbers are far better than the record, and that is the part many fans are overlooking.

The Numbers Say They Are Better Than Their Record

Analytics have become a core part of how NHL teams evaluate themselves. Over the past few years, clubs have hired more and more people to study the data and work out what the team is doing well and what it is doing badly. I used the same approach here, and the picture at 5-on-5 is encouraging.

Take Wednesday’s game in Washington. Montreal controlled play at even strength for most of the night and still lost 5-4. At 5-on-5, the Canadiens outattempted the Capitals 54-34, outshot them 22-18 and held a 28-13 edge in scoring chances. The gap in high-danger chances was 12 to 2. Their expected goals were 3.36 to 1.78, nearly double. And still the 5-on-5 goals finished 3-3.

Expected goals estimate how many goals a team should score based on the number and quality of its chances. They guarantee nothing in a single game, but they show that Montreal created more than enough quality chances to win.

It was the same story last Thursday against Nashville. The Canadiens outshot the Predators 27-10 at 5-on-5, and the even-strength goals were 1-1. Nashville’s other four goals came on the power play (two) and into an empty net (two), and Montreal lost 5-2.

I would rather see a team generate dangerous chances and lose than be dominated night after night and rely on its goalie to steal wins. It is an 84-game season. In each of the last four games, the Canadiens have had more than half of the 5-on-5 shot attempts, and if they keep controlling even-strength play like this, more wins will come. That is the positive side. But dominating at 5-on-5 guarantees nothing, and there are real reasons why they have not turned that control into points. Here they are.

1. Jakub Dobes Has Not Been Sharp

Jakub Dobes is 1-2-1 through four starts with a 4.63 goals-against average and a .841 save percentage. That is not the Jakub Dobes we saw in last season’s playoffs.

In three of his four starts, his save percentage was .844 or lower: .800 in Pittsburgh, .844 against Carolina and .783 in Washington, where he stopped 18 of 23 shots. One more number stands out: goals saved above expected (GSAx), which compares the goals a goalie has allowed with the number an average goalie would be expected to allow on the same shots. Dobes is at minus-6, second-last in the NHL, which means he has allowed six more goals than expected. Jacob Fowler, by comparison, is at plus-1.8 and has a .906 save percentage in three games.

Four starts is a small sample, so these numbers raise questions rather than settle them. Should we be concerned? Not yet. Dobes is a fighter and a competitor, and I believe the goalie coach will help him get back on track. What he needs is to rebuild his confidence and return to the level he showed in last season’s playoffs. Let’s give it a few more games before anyone starts a goaltending controversy in Montreal.

2. The Special Teams Are Not Helping

The same principle applies here as at 5-on-5: if you play well on the power play and the penalty kill, you give yourself a real chance to win. Right now the Canadiens are struggling at both.

The Power Play Is Not Producing Enough

The power play sits at 13.6% (3 for 22), 27th in the NHL. Look closer and it is worse: only one of those three goals came at 5-on-4. The other two came at 5-on-3 and 6-on-4. I also see too few shots, too many passes, a lack of cohesion and a setup that is too predictable. Demidov’s absence is a factor, but the execution has to improve. I would not tear up the units, though. This group has far too much talent not to score, and I expect the power play to find its form again, as it did last season.

The Penalty Kill Needs More Time

The penalty kill is at 80.0% (24 for 30), 17th in the league. The team is using a new, more aggressive system, and there is an adjustment period. The early results were rough: 12 for 17 (70.6%) over the first four games. Over the last three games, the Canadiens have killed 12 of 13 penalties (92.3%). Three of the six power-play goals they have allowed were tips or deflections in front of the net: Kindel’s tip-in in Pittsburgh, O’Reilly’s tip-in for Nashville and Miroshnichenko’s goal on Wednesday, which deflected off Anderson’s stick.

3. Discipline Is Costing Them

The Canadiens have taken 36 minor penalties, the most in the NHL, an average of 5.14 per game against a league average of 3.6. Opponents have had 30 power plays against Montreal’s 22, a difference of eight. In five of the seven games, the opponent had more power plays than the Canadiens, and in another one it was even.

On Wednesday, it was the difference in the game. The 5-on-5 goals were 3-3, but Washington also scored on the power play and shorthanded, while the Canadiens scored once with the man advantage, on Nick Suzuki’s goal at 6-on-4 with the extra attacker late in the third period.

4. Injuries Have Changed the Plan

Injuries are not an excuse, and nobody around the league will feel sorry for Montreal. But it would be dishonest to ignore how much they have changed the plan. The Canadiens have not had their full roster at any point this season. Oliver Kapanen, the second-line center, has not played yet. Kaiden Guhle made his season debut in the fifth game, and Mike Matheson has missed the last two, so the top four on defense has never been complete. Ivan Demidov has played only two of the seven games, and without him the power play is not the same.

There is a positive here. The second line has been better in the last two games with Anderson, Kreider and Newhook together: Anderson scored three goals in those two games, and Newhook assisted on two of them. Still, Demidov could make an even bigger difference.

5. The Fourth Line Is Not Producing

Kirby Dach is nowhere to be found. He has one assist in seven games, a minus-4 rating and about nine and a half minutes a night. In my opinion, it is only a matter of time before he becomes a healthy scratch and, eventually, a trade candidate. He has had plenty of opportunities to show something, and nothing is going to change tomorrow, next week or next month. It is time to move on.

The rest of the line has not helped. Jake Evans has centered it with Owen Beck, or with Florian Xhekaj, who played two games there before getting hurt, and the group has no chemistry. I understand Evans’s role on the penalty kill, but he has to give more offensively. Together, the four players, Dach, Evans, Beck and Xhekaj, have one point, 12 shots on goal and a combined minus-14.

Any good team in the NHL has a fourth line with an identity: a group that forechecks, plays a physical game and is hard to play against. The Canadiens are far from that right now, and that line has to step up to give the team a better chance to win.

Verdict: Time to Pay Attention, Not to Panic

This is not a moment to panic, but it is a moment to pay closer attention. After seven games, the Canadiens are 3-3-1, and the problems I described are real: goaltending that has to be sharper, special teams that have to improve, too many penalties, a lineup that is still incomplete and a fourth line that gives the team almost nothing. Ignoring them would be a mistake.

But I also see reasons for optimism. The Canadiens have had more than half of the 5-on-5 shot attempts in each of the last four games, and they created far better chances than Washington on Wednesday. It is a long season, and things change quickly in the NHL. I want to see how Dobes responds, how the power play develops and what this team looks like when more of its key players are healthy. If the 5-on-5 play holds and the team fixes its special teams and its penalties, this group can be much more competitive than its record suggests. The key word is if. Enjoy the ride, Habs fans.