Three weeks ago, Jacob Fowler was the goalie the Canadiens called up because Samuel Montembeault got hurt at practice. Today he is the NHL’s third star of the week, he has won five straight starts, and the question in Montreal has changed. It is no longer whether he can play at this level. It is whether he is now the number one goalie.

The league named Fowler its third star for the week after a 2-0-0 stretch with a 1.00 goals-against average and a .964 save percentage. He beat Chicago 4-1 on Friday and Winnipeg 2-1 in the Heritage Classic on Sunday. That is the headline. The bigger story is what six starts have done to the Canadiens’ goalie picture, with Jakub Dobeš struggling and Montembeault still on injured reserve. This article covers the week, the full season so far, the case for and against calling him the number one, and what happens when Montembeault comes back.

The Week: Chicago and the Heritage Classic

Date	Game	Result	Shots against	Saves	Goals against	Save %
Fri Oct 23	at Chicago	W 4-1	21	20	1	.952
Sun Oct 25	at Winnipeg (Heritage Classic)	W 2-1	34	33	1	.971
Week		2-0-0	55	53	2	.964

Fowler’s two starts of the week. Goals-against average for the week: 1.00.

In Chicago, the only goal against was Connor Bedard’s early 5-on-5 goal. After that, Fowler stopped the other 20 shots while the Canadiens took control of the game and finished with a 28-21 edge in shots. You can read the full story in our Blackhawks game report.

Winnipeg was the bigger test, and not only because it was an outdoor game in front of a huge crowd. Lane Hutson and Kaiden Guhle scored in the second period to give the Canadiens a 2-0 lead. Isak Rosen cut it to 2-1 at 15:24 of the third period, and from there the Jets had the last four and a half minutes to tie it. They put three more shots on net, from Alex Iafallo, Viggo Björck and Neal Pionk. Fowler stopped all three. When a young goalie has to protect a one-goal lead in the last minutes of a game like that, you find out very quickly if he is calm. He was.

At 21 years and 335 days old, Fowler became the youngest goalie in NHL history to start and win an outdoor game, according to the league’s weekly note on the three stars. Our Heritage Classic game report has the full details of the game.

Six Starts, Five Straight Wins

Date	Opponent	Result	Shots against	Saves	Goals against	Save %
Oct 8	vs Nashville	L 2-5	18	15	3	.833
Oct 10	vs Detroit	W 1-0 (SO)	30	30	0	1.000
Oct 13	vs Buffalo	W 4-3 (SO)	16	13	3	.813
Oct 17	vs Buffalo	W 4-3 (OT)	26	23	3	.885
Oct 23	at Chicago	W 4-1	21	20	1	.952
Oct 25	at Winnipeg	W 2-1	34	33	1	.971
Season		5-1-0	145	134	11	.924

Fowler’s 2026-27 starts, from NHL game data. He has a 1.79 goals-against average and one shutout.

Look at how the season started for him. His only loss came in his first start, on October 8, a 5-2 game against Nashville. He allowed three goals on 18 shots, and two of them were tip-ins from the slot, the kind of goal a goalie cannot do much about. The last two Nashville goals went into an empty net and do not count against him. He was not happy with the result, and he answered it in the best possible way: five wins in a row.

The shutout against Detroit came two days later. He stopped all 30 shots through regulation and overtime, and the Canadiens won it in the shootout. The NHL credits it to him as his shutout this season and the second of his career. Then came the two Buffalo games, both won after 60 minutes, one in a shootout and one on Cole Caufield’s overtime goal. In those games he allowed three goals each time, but he held the game close enough for his team to win it.

Where does that put him around the league? Among goalies with at least four starts, Fowler is fifth in goals-against average and fifth in save percentage. He is tied for eighth in wins with five. Those are not rookie numbers on a good team. Those are the numbers of a goalie who is playing as well as almost anyone in the league right now.

The Canadiens With Fowler, the Canadiens With Dobeš

Goalie	GP	Record	GAA	Save %	Shutouts
Jacob Fowler	6	5-1-0	1.79	.924	1
Jakub Dobeš	5	1-2-2	4.47	.847	0
Samuel Montembeault	0	Injured reserve	–	–	–

2026-27 regular season. The Canadiens are 6-3-2 (14 points) after 11 games.

The team record tells the same story. The Canadiens are 5-1-0 when Fowler starts and 1-2-2 when Dobeš starts. Dobeš has not won in his last four starts, and the losses include the overtime defeat to San Jose that we broke down in our Sharks game report. He has allowed 22 goals on 144 shots this season.

We have to be fair to Dobeš here. Most of what we have seen from him this fall is the opposite of what he did a year ago, and goalies go through stretches like this. But the Canadiens take a lot of penalties and give up a lot of chances in front of the net, as we showed in the 10-game report card. When a team plays that way, the goalie is the difference between a bad night and a lost game. Right now Fowler is the goalie who makes that difference.

What the Results Say About His Game

We cannot see every save, but the pattern of his games is clear and it matches what goalie coaches look for in a young player.

First, he allowed one goal or less in three of his six starts. Second, he has handled every kind of night: 16 shots against Buffalo, 30 against Detroit, 34 against Winnipeg. He averages about 24 shots against per start. Third, the way he responded to his first loss tells you about his composure. A goalie who gets rattled after two tip-in goals starts chasing the puck, and the next game goes the same way. Fowler did the opposite and kept his game simple. And fourth, the way he finished in Winnipeg, with a one-goal lead and the Jets pushing, is exactly what a coach wants to see from the player in net.

Teammates have noticed it too. Cole Caufield pointed to his calm and his positioning, and said that the big sideways saves look normal when Fowler makes them. For a defense that is trying to clean up its own mistakes, a goalie like that is a big help.

Beyond Save Percentage: What the Expected Numbers Say

Save percentage tells you how many shots a goalie stopped. It does not tell you how hard those shots were. That is why we also look at goals saved above expected, or GSAx. Every shot gets a chance of becoming a goal based on where it came from, the type of shot and the situation. Add those chances up and you get the number of goals an average goalie would have allowed. GSAx is the difference between that number and the goals the goalie actually allowed.

Goalie	Goals against	Expected goals against	GSAx	GSAx rank (70 goalies)	Save % (unblocked shots)	Expected save %	GAA	Expected GAA
Jacob Fowler	11	17.1	+6.1	4th	.964	.944	1.79	2.78
Jakub Dobeš	22	15.8	-6.2	68th	.918	.941	4.47	3.21

MoneyPuck goalie model, all situations, 2026-27 regular season through October 25.

Fowler has faced shots worth 17.1 expected goals and has allowed 11. That makes him 6.1 goals better than an average goalie, fourth in the league, behind only Jake Oettinger, Linus Ullmark and Jesper Wallstedt. Dobeš is on the other side of the table. He has faced 15.8 expected goals and allowed 22, which is 6.2 goals worse than average and 68th out of 70 goalies. Put the two together and the gap between them is about 12 goals in 11 games. That is the biggest reason the record is 5-1-0 with one and 1-2-2 with the other.

Notice also that Fowler’s expected goals-against average is 2.78 and his real one is 1.79. The team in front of him is not giving up a quiet game every night. The chances he faces would normally cost a goal and a half more per 60 minutes than what he has allowed, and that difference is his work. At the same time, he is saving almost a full goal per 60 minutes above expected, and no goalie keeps that pace for a full season. We should expect some cooling, and that is another reason to be patient with the title of number one.

The danger zones tell a more detailed story. On low-danger shots he is where the model expects him to be, .969 against .966. On medium-danger shots he is far above it, .962 against an expected .874. That is where he has made most of his money so far. On high-danger shots he is below the expected number, .600 against .707, but that sample is only a handful of shots, so a single goal moves the percentage a lot. Dobeš is below expectation in both groups, .793 against .866 on medium-danger shots and .571 against .719 on high-danger shots. The takeaway for a goalie coach is simple: Fowler is stopping the shots a goalie is supposed to stop, and the toughest chances are where he still has room to grow.

One caution. These numbers come from one model, and different models can disagree a little. They also cover only six starts and 369 minutes for Fowler. Treat them as a strong signal, not a verdict.

Is Fowler the Number One?

The honest answer is yes and no. Yes, he is the goalie the Canadiens should play right now, and the results are the reason. No, he has not yet earned the label of a long-term number one, and the team should not give it to him this early.

https://twitter.com/FanMontanaro/status/2114538353362387228

The case for. He has won five straight, he has the best numbers of the three goalies by a wide margin, he is fourth in the league in goals saved above expected, and he has done it in big games: a road game in Chicago and a Heritage Classic in front of a national audience. The other two goalies are not available or not performing. He is also the youngest, with the highest upside. If you want the coaching version, you play the goalie who gives the team the best chance to win, and that goalie is Fowler.

The case for patience. Six starts is a small sample. One bad night would hurt his numbers: a 5-goal game on 30 shots would drop his save percentage from .924 to about .909. And we have seen this movie before in Montreal. Dobeš went 6-0 with a .930 save percentage in October last season, finished with 43 games, 29 wins and a .901 save percentage, and then played 19 playoff games with a 9-10 record and a .908 save percentage. A great October does not make a number one. A number one is a goalie the coach trusts for 55 to 60 starts and for a playoff series.

Fowler is also still getting used to the NHL. Last season he played 17 games for the Canadiens with a .908 save percentage, and 27 games for Laval with a .916. Because he played fewer than 26 NHL games last year, he is still rookie-eligible, so if the numbers hold up the Calder Trophy conversation will come. But that conversation is for April, not October.

Our view. Ride the hot goalie, but do not make promises. Fowler has earned the net for now, and he should keep getting most of the starts. The title of number one has to wait until he has 20 or 25 starts and has gone through at least one rough stretch. That is how every young goalie earns it.

What Happens When Montembeault Returns?

Montembeault left practice on October 7 with an apparent leg injury, and the team put him on injured reserve with a lower-body injury. That is how Fowler got the call, as we reported in our call-up article. He is about two more weeks away from returning, which puts his comeback around the second week of November.

That timeline matters, because by the time Montembeault is healthy, Fowler will probably have another four to six starts on his record. The Canadiens play six games in 12 days, from tonight in St. Louis to November 7 in Toronto, and none of them are on back-to-back nights. So there is no scheduling reason to rest anyone. Every start Fowler gets is a decision by the coaching staff.

Is Fowler pushing Montembeault out? Not yet. He has pushed him down the depth chart for now, but that is also because Montembeault is injured. The reason the door opened is the .872 save percentage Montembeault had last season in 25 games, with a 3.43 goals-against average. Over his 231-game career he has a .896 save percentage. That is not the profile of a goalie who locks down a starting job. When he is healthy, Montembeault will have to earn his starts in practice and in games, like everyone else.

The real problem is the one we described in our Three Goalies article. Under Kent Hughes the Canadiens have carried three goalies every season, and this year it is happening again with a twist: Dobeš and Fowler have both played, and Montembeault is coming back. Someone will have to sit, and the team will have to decide the roles. Our advice is to decide it on performance over the next two weeks, not on contracts or history.

What to Watch Next

Dobeš is expected to get the start tonight in St. Louis, the city where he settled as a teenager. That makes sense. Fowler had a heavy week with the Chicago game and the Heritage Classic trip, and it gives Dobeš a chance to reset in a place where he is comfortable. The goalie and the lines are not confirmed yet, so check our Lineup Tonight page and the Injury Report for the latest.

Here are the four things to track in the coming days.

1. Who starts Thursday in Dallas. Fowler on short rest against the Stars, or another turn for Dobeš? That tells us how the coaching staff really sees the race.

2. Fowler’s save percentage and GSAx over his next three starts. If he stays above .915 and keeps adding to his +6.1, the sample is getting harder to ignore.

3. Dobeš’s response. He needs a win and a clean game, not only a good result.

4. Montembeault’s return date. The next update will show if the three-goalie decision comes in early or mid-November. Follow it on our Injury Report page and in the Canadiens stats page.

The Bottom Line

Jacob Fowler has taken the net with his play, not with his name. Five straight wins, a .924 save percentage, a shutout, and a Heritage Classic that will be remembered are the reasons the Canadiens are 6-3-2 and not worse. He is the right goalie to play right now. Whether he is the goalie for the next ten years is a question that 20 more starts and a playoff run will answer, and it is the kind of question every team wants to have.

Sources: NHL game data and player statistics (NHL.com), the NHL’s weekly three stars announcement, MoneyPuck (goalie expected-goals model) and RDS coverage of the Canadiens’ week.