Three games without Nick Suzuki, three wins, and two goals against. Jacob Fowler stopped 99 of the 101 shots he faced in that stretch, and after watching him three nights in a row I think he needs a nickname that matches the reaction in the building: Wow-ler.
The Canadiens are 7-3-2 with 16 points and sit second in the Atlantic Division. The easy story is that the team changed its system the moment the captain went down: tighter defense, a better penalty kill, no more blown leads. Part of that story is true. Part of it is not, and the part that is not matters just as much if you want to know whether this run can last. I went through all 12 games using the NHL play-by-play and shift data, nine with Suzuki and three without, to separate what really changed from what only looks like it changed.
Three Games, Two Goals Against
| Date | Opponent | Result | Shots on goal (Canadiens-Opponent) | Fowler |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 23 | at Chicago | W 4-1 | 28-21 | 20 saves on 21 shots (.952) |
| Oct. 25 | Winnipeg | W 2-1 | 21-34 | 33 saves on 34 shots (.971) |
| Oct. 27 | at St. Louis | W 2-0 | 20-46 | 46 saves on 46 shots (1.000) |
| Total | 3-0-0 | 8 goals for, 2 against | 69-101 | 99 saves on 101 shots (.980) |
Look at the shot column and the story gets stranger each night. Chicago was a normal win: 28 shots for, 21 against. Winnipeg flipped the shots, 34 against and 21 for, and the Canadiens still won 2-1 because Fowler stopped 33 of 34. Then St. Louis put 46 shots on him and he stopped every one. Across the three games the Canadiens scored eight goals and allowed two, while being outshot 101 to 69.
Wow-ler: Why the Goalie Changes Everything
Fowler is 6-1-0 with a 1.54 goals-against average, a .942 save percentage and two shutouts in seven games. Those season numbers are excellent, but the more interesting split is inside them. In his first four starts he stopped 81 of 90 shots, a .900 save percentage. In the last three he stopped 99 of 101, .980. Same goalie, same team, a very different level of sharpness.
For context, the goalies who played the first nine games combined to stop 203 of 234 shots, .868, and Jakub Dobes sits at .847 over five games. That is not about blaming one goalie. It shows how much a team’s results swing on its last line of defense: the Canadiens went from 3.78 goals against per game in the first nine games to 0.67 in the last three.
The numbers tell only part of the story, because the way he plays is what stands out when you watch him. Fowler is 21 years old and he looks like he has been in this league for years. He is calm in the crease and never seems to be scrambling, and his eyes stay on the puck from the point all the way to his pad. In traffic he finds the right position early and tracks the shot through the screen, and what I notice most is how often the puck simply sticks to him instead of kicking out into the slot. Fewer rebounds means fewer second chances for the other team, and it is a big reason the defense in front of him can play with patience.
Against St. Louis he showed another dimension of his game: mobility. He moves across the crease left and right with a T-push and finishes the save with the correct pad, whichever side the puck comes from. He is listed at 6-foot-1, so he is not a goalie who wins by filling the net. He wins with position, tracking and movement, and that combination is difficult at any age and rare at 21.
The advanced numbers agree with the eye test. His high-danger save percentage is .885, compared with a league average of .811, which puts him in the 88th percentile among goalies. Four of his seven starts (57.1%) have finished above .900, against a league average of 48.5% (72nd percentile). High-danger shots come from the slot and the crease area, the chances that decide games, and stopping them at that rate is exactly what a team wants from its last line of defense. Over the season, the expected-goals model we use has him 10.1 goals better than expected, first among the 71 goalies in the league and ahead of Jake Oettinger at 9.4. About 3.9 of those came in St. Louis alone, where the 46 shots he faced were worth that many goals and he allowed none of them.
The record book is paying attention too. Six straight wins at 21 makes him only the third goalie in Canadiens history to win six in a row at age 21 or younger, after Carey Price, who won seven in a row in 2007-08 at 20, and Rogie Vachon, who won six in a row in 1966-67 at 21. His 46 saves in the shutout in St. Louis are the most ever by a Canadiens rookie in a shutout since shots on goal began to be tracked in 1955-56, passing Cayden Primeau’s 41 on March 12, 2024 and Tony Esposito’s 41 on Dec. 21, 1968. Around the league he is the ninth rookie since 1955-56 to make at least 46 saves in a shutout, and the first since Connor Ingram stopped 47 on Feb. 15, 2023.
No rookie keeps a .980 save percentage for a season, and the coach in me knows that number will come down. But the parts behind it, the tracking, the rebound control and the movement, are the parts that travel with him from night to night.
The First Nine Games Against the Last Three
| Category | First 9 games (with Suzuki) | Last 3 games (without Suzuki) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3-2 | 3-0-0 |
| Goals for per game | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| Goals against per game | 3.78 | 0.67 |
| Shots on goal for per game | 29.7 | 23.0 |
| Shots on goal against per game | 26.3 | 33.7 |
| Goalie save percentage | .868 (203 of 234) | .980 (99 of 101) |
| 5-on-5 shot attempt share | 56.3% | 48.7% |
| 5-on-5 shot attempt share when tied | 59.5% | 50.5% |
| Minutes leading per game | 19.9 | 32.1 |
| Leads erased or overturned (regulation) | 9 | 0 |
| Power play | 4 for 29 | 0 for 6 |
| Penalty kill | 29 of 37 (78.4%) | 12 of 12 (100%) |
| Blocked shots per game | 12.6 | 17.3 |
| Hits per game | 20.3 | 24.3 |
| Giveaways per game | 14.7 | 19.7 |
| Shot attempts allowed from inside 25 feet, per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 | 14.4 | 20.3 |
Read the table in two halves. The top half is results, and results improved on nearly every line except goals scored. The bottom half is process, and the process got worse. Shot attempt shares, leads erased and shots from inside 25 feet are HABSHQ counts from NHL play-by-play data, regulation time only.
What Is Real: Protecting Leads and Killing Penalties
In the first nine games a Canadiens lead was erased or overturned nine times in regulation, twice each in Carolina and in Washington. In the three games without Suzuki it has not happened once. The Canadiens have also spent 32.1 minutes per game in the lead, up from 19.9. That is the clearest sign of a changed identity: get ahead, then manage the game. When you lead, you take fewer risks, and the opponent has to take more of them.
The penalty kill went from 29 for 37, 78.4%, over the first nine games to 12 for 12 in the last three, with a short-handed goal in Chicago. The penalties did not change: the Canadiens were short-handed 4.1 times per game before and 4.0 times per game now. So the improvement is the kill itself, not discipline. Twelve kills is a small sample and I would not promise perfection, but the blocked shots back it up: 17.3 per game now, compared with 12.6. A good kill pressures the first pass, keeps sticks in the lanes and clears the puck on the first chance, and the numbers fit that picture.
What Is Not Better: Possession and Shot Quality
The instinct that the first nine games looked better on possession is correct. At 5-on-5 the Canadiens had 56.3% of the shot attempts through nine games, and 48.7% in the three games without Suzuki. It is not only a lead effect either. Teams that are leading usually get outshot, so I checked tied situations: the Canadiens had 59.5% of the attempts when the score was tied in the first nine games and 50.5% in the last three.
The quality picture says the same thing. Shot attempts from inside 25 feet, a rough slot measure built from the NHL coordinates, went from 14.4 allowed per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 to 20.3. Giveaways rose from 14.7 to 19.7 per game. The Canadiens are not defending the slot better. They are surviving it.
Their offense changed shape too. They scored 2.7 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in both stretches, on about eight fewer attempts per 60 (65.4 down to 57.0). That is the opportunist identity in a single number: fewer shots, the same goals. At the other end, 5-on-5 goals against fell from 3.0 to 0.9 per 60 while the attempts against rose from 50.7 to 60.1. A team can live like that for a while, and it is also the style most exposed to luck.
How a Coach Reads It: Puck Battles, Net Front and Gap Control
Martin St-Louis has described what the team is trying to do in the neutral zone. The Canadiens are putting more pressure on the puck carrier as he crosses center ice, with the defensemen stepping up because the forwards are staying on the back side of the play with sustained back pressure. The goal is not to flatten anybody. It is to force the opponent to give up the puck, and the coach points out that when the forwards track back and the gap stays tight, his defensemen get fewer chances for a big hit. In other words, the gap is doing the work that a hit used to do.
Here is what the numbers can and cannot tell us. Blocked shots are up from 12.6 to 17.3 per game and team hits from 20.3 to 24.3, which fits a group paying the price in front of its own net. Hits by the defensemen rose only slightly, from 5.8 to 7.0 per game, so hits are not a clean way to measure a tight gap. And the opponents are still getting to the Canadiens’ net: shots against went from 26.3 to 33.7 per game and the shot attempts from inside 25 feet are up. Gap control and puck retrieval show up on film and in zone-entry tracking, not in the box score, so the real test is whether the opponent keeps getting clean entries. That is the first thing I will watch against Dallas on Thursday.
The Defense Settled Down
Health is a big part of this story. Kaiden Guhle came back in the fifth game of the season and Mike Matheson returned in Chicago, so the last three games are the first time since game five that the Canadiens have had Guhle, Matheson, Hutson, Carrier and Dobson all in the lineup together, with Arber Xhekaj or Engström as the sixth defenseman.
| Defenseman | First 9 games (minutes per game) | Last 3 games (minutes per game) |
|---|---|---|
| Hutson | 26.4 | 21.8 |
| Matheson | 24.2 (5 games) | 23.1 |
| Guhle | 21.9 (5 games) | 23.1 |
| Carrier | 19.5 | 21.1 |
| Dobson | 21.6 | 19.6 |
In the first nine games Hutson carried the heaviest load by far. He played more than 26 minutes in five of the nine games and reached 29:21 in Carolina. In the last three games no defenseman has played more than 25:37, and the five regulars sit between 19.6 and 23.1 minutes a night. The sixth defenseman still plays only about 10 minutes, so five men do the work, but they share it evenly, and defensemen who are rested late in a one-goal game usually make better decisions with the puck.
The pairs have been solid. Dobson and Hutson have been the best pair on the ice, with 37 of the 50 shot attempts (74.0%) in 25.7 minutes at 5-on-5. Matheson and Guhle logged 27.0 minutes together and the Canadiens outscored opponents 2-0 while they were out there.
The Depth Lines Are the Transformation
| Forward | First 9 games (minutes per game) | Last 3 games (minutes per game) |
|---|---|---|
| Danault | 15.9 | 18.9 |
| Evans | 13.6 | 16.9 |
| Dach | 9.8 | 12.7 |
| Kapanen | 11.1 (2 games) | 15.1 |
| Slafkovský | 18.9 | 16.6 |
| Caufield | 19.7 | 16.1 |
| Suzuki | 21.8 | Out |
The change shows up most clearly in the forwards. In the first nine games Suzuki played more than 20 minutes in eight of the nine games, and Caufield got above 21 minutes twice. In the last three games Danault has led all forwards in ice time every night (18:15, 18:58 and 19:21) and no forward has reached 20 minutes. The minutes that used to belong to the top line are now shared with the support lines.
The Evans line is the best example, and the analytics do show it. Evans, Dach and Florian Xhekaj played 13.1 minutes together at 5-on-5 and had 17 of the 19 shot attempts (89.5%). With Beck on the wing instead of Xhekaj, Evans and Dach had 7 of 9 in 6.8 minutes. Evans, Dach, Beck and Xhekaj combined for 7 points and 3 of the 8 goals in the three games, compared with one point from the four of them in the first nine. Danault, Texier and Bolduc added 24.0 minutes with 69.8% of the attempts. Those two groups are why the Canadiens keep surviving nights when the top of the lineup is quiet.
Kirby Dach is the surprise inside that group. He took a lot of criticism for his start, when he was given a chance in the top six and did not make the most of it, and much of that criticism was fair. A fourth-line role next to Evans has suited him better. Public tracking data over games 9, 10 and 11 had the Canadiens outshooting opponents 15-6 with Dach on the ice at 5-on-5, with a 35-13 edge in shot attempts, all 11 of the high-danger chances and about 84% of the expected goals. Adding the St. Louis game from the NHL data, the picture over four games and 44 minutes at 5-on-5 is a 20-9 edge in shots on goal and 45 of 71 shot attempts (63.4%), with three goals for and one against. St. Louis was the hardest of the four nights, when the Canadiens were outattempted 13-10 with Dach on the ice, though they still led in shots on goal 5-3. He has also gone over the boards on the penalty kill, for 3:53 over the last three games compared with 4:16 across the first nine. This is not top-six production and nobody should pretend it is, but for what you can reasonably expect from a fourth-line player, it is good hockey.
One line has not shared in it. Kreider, Anderson and Newhook were on the ice for 22.8 minutes and had 19 attempts for and 38 against (33.3%). That group, together with the top line’s slide from 63.7% to 55.0% (more on that below), explains why the team-wide shot share fell even while the depth lines were dominating. Martin St-Louis likes to keep his lines together, and when Danault has jumped up to play with Slafkovský and Caufield, the trio was outshot 8-2 on attempts in 5.7 minutes. That is a very small sample, but it shows how much the balance of the three stable lines matters.
What Suzuki Leaves Behind: The Top Line and the Power Play
Kapanen has stepped into the center spot between Slafkovský and Caufield, and he has not hurt them: the line has 33 of 60 attempts (55.0%) in 29.8 minutes at 5-on-5. But it is not producing the way Suzuki’s line did. Slafkovský, Suzuki and Caufield had 63.7% of the attempts in 78 minutes through the first nine games and outscored opponents 4-1 at 5-on-5. Suzuki had 12 points in nine games, and Caufield and Slafkovský combined for 15 points, including 8 goals. In the last three games the two of them have three points and no goals, and Kapanen has no points. In my view Kapanen is the closest thing the Canadiens have to a replacement, but he is not a like-for-like swap for a player who creates the way Suzuki does.
The power play shows the damage most clearly. The Canadiens are 0 for 6 in the three games, and in Winnipeg they did not get a power play at all. In the first nine games the first unit was Hutson, Slafkovský, Caufield, Suzuki and Kreider, with 25 to 32 minutes each. The first unit now lists Hutson, Dobson, Slafkovský, Kapanen and Caufield, with two defensemen on the ice and Kreider off it. The shot volume has dropped with it: 5 shots on goal in 11.5 minutes of power play time (0.43 per minute), against 29 in 46.2 minutes (0.63) earlier. Power plays run on timing and trust, on passes into seams that only open when every player knows where the next one will be, and new combinations need repetitions to find that. Six chances in three games are not enough repetitions.
Can It Last, and What Comes Back With Suzuki
Be careful with the arithmetic. If the Canadiens keep allowing about 34 shots a night and the goaltending settles at a very good .920, they give up about 2.7 goals per game, not 0.7. At the rates of the first nine games, 26 shots and a .868 save percentage, the number was about 3.5. So the new identity can win games, but not at .980 and 34 shots forever. To make it sustainable the team needs its 5-on-5 shot share back toward 50% and fewer giveaways in the middle of the ice.
The Canadiens announced on Oct. 22 that Suzuki has an upper-body injury with a timeline of two to four weeks, which points to a return between Nov. 5 and Nov. 19 if it holds. Three games come before Nov. 5: at Dallas on Thursday, Pittsburgh on Saturday and Winnipeg next Tuesday. In each one I will watch three things: the 5-on-5 shot share when the score is tied, how many shots the Canadiens allow from the slot, and whether Fowler has to face 30 shots again.
My view as a coach: the patience, the lead protection and the penalty kill are a real identity, and it fits this roster without its captain. But the numbers say Wow-ler is carrying the margin, not the system. If the Canadiens can add a few points of shot share to what Fowler is already giving them, this team stops depending on a hot goalie and starts being good in a way that lasts. And when Suzuki comes back, he returns to a lineup with a settled defense, depth lines that are producing and a goalie who has stopped 99 of his last 101 shots.
Sources: NHL official play-by-play, shift charts, box scores and team statistics; Natural Stat Trick for the Dach tracking numbers through game 11; Martin St-Louis’ comments to the media; featured image and embedded post by PerformancesNHL on X; NHL.com stats and NHL notes for the Fowler records; expected-goals data from MoneyPuck; Suzuki injury timeline from the Canadiens announcement as reported by The Hockey News.
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